The development and evolution of mobile networks brings new opportunities to communications equipment providers, and the richness of application scenarios and application scenarios will lead to changes in the revenue structure and business model of the communications equipment industry. Different communication equipment manufacturers have chosen different The transformation of the road.
The development and evolution of the mobile network brings new opportunities for the communication equipment manufacturers, and the richness of the application scenarios and application cases will lead to the change of the income structure and the business model of the communication equipment industry. Different communication equipment manufacturers choose different Transformation road.
I remember in 2012 I personally wrote an industry report "not the same choice, not the same future - the global perspective of China Telecom equipment manufacturers to develop thinking", which the main conclusions are: 1. Telecom system equipment if not effective Expand the border to find a new direction, the future development of the valuation level will show a downward trend, the significance of investment will be gradually reduced, the transition becomes the key; 2. Enterprise network market size, size, profit margins and other factors make the telecommunications equipment manufacturers into To become inevitable, opportunities and challenges with; 3 believe that the future of Huawei and ZTE two equipment manufacturers through differentiated products, the competitive advantage of the price and the alienation of regional and customer choice will be in the enterprise network development to obtain high-speed growth; 4. At present, telecom equipment manufacturers are still in a technological innovation-based competition level, the future should be to seize the commanding heights of technological innovation to seize the high ground of business model innovation. Industry competition, the market boundary to expand, competition is no longer simply compete for market share of zero-sum game, from a single enterprise competition to the industry alliance competition, industrial competition is showing a diversified trend; 5. China and the terminal associated with the company , Many are product dependencies and customer dependence, in the long term, the ability of innovation in technology and the expansion of high-quality customers, business model innovation takes a long way to go, we believe that the basic path lies in the production and technology introduction , Absorption, innovation on the road for products and customers to expand, and finally get the business model of self-uniqueness, there may be successful. It now appears that most of the conclusions are almost always verified, but also out of a lot of new elements need further consideration:
First, the equipment manufacturing industry needs long-term development of several elements of the discussion. Personally think that the first element is the development of equipment under the needs of operators, and operators are subject to the overall direction of the development of the telecommunications industry. The second element is the extension of the first element, which includes the future development of some new technical routes and structural effects such as 5G, NFV, SDN, UWB and so on. The third element is a variety of consumer trends, the application scenario, the communications equipment industry, including product architecture, manufacturing model, industrial ecology and other aspects of the change, the development model presents a diversified, deep, high input-output ratio characteristics The Of course, finally, including the telecommunications network information network, including a high degree of security, including the patent, technology, product path dependence.
Second, the mobile network development and evolution opportunities. 5G in addition to ultra-high-speed transmission needs, 5G also need to meet the large bandwidth, ultra-high capacity, ultra-dense site, ultra reliability, anytime, anywhere access and other requirements, it can be said, 5G is a wide, , Intelligent, integration, green energy-saving network. Throughout the national organizations and major equipment manufacturers R & D focus, improve the efficiency of spectrum utilization, the development of more effective air channel, to achieve ultra-dense network, etc. become the core of 5G research and development. Among them, the ultra-intensive micro-centralized coverage is the trend, according to equipment manufacturers technical personnel explained that the future of ultra-dense station may only cover a few meters away from each station, wireless backhaul self-organizing network, ultra-intelligent SON function to achieve micro-station plug And network from the planning, macro micro, micro station self-cooperation to enhance network performance. With the density of the micro station is getting higher and higher, the independent station is assigned to the independent high frequency point, the macro station takes the individual control channel thin carrier mode and the super virtual virtual cell, etc. will be the future important development direction.
Third, including NFV, SDN, ultra-wideband and other hot technology innovation on the equipment industry chain to increase the impact. The progress of information technology, especially the data center and cloud computing technology mature and widely used to promote the communication network to the ultra-wideband cloud network development. High performance, low transmission costs and personalization are the three major requirements facing the network. Broadband, mobile, ubiquitization and integration will be the development trend of the network. All-round ultra-wideband access, a new generation of mobile technology, intelligent light transmission network, the new IP network technology will become the main force of industrial innovation. The entire network communications products are along the computer and mobile phone industry has gone through the road development, this trend is the network of IT and software. Essence is from the closed, private technology architecture to open, standard technology architecture changes. NFV, core network IP, SDN, cloud is the network to meet the needs of the necessary technology.
SDN, for example, SDN (Software Defined Network) is a new network innovation architecture, which is an implementation of network virtualization. Its core technology OpenFlow achieves network traffic by separating the network device control plane from the data plane The flexibility to control the network as a pipeline becomes more intelligent. SDN itself is an innovative network architecture is not a specific technology and protocol, but a new architecture. SDN is designed to enable the definition of network interconnection and network behavior and open interfaces to support future innovations in new network architectures and new services. SDN has become the most popular research in the global network field Google, Microsoft and other Internet companies have invested a lot of research in the field of SDN, Cisco, Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE, IBM, HP and other IT companies are also developing SDN control And switches. SDN's new concept will impact the traditional network, the current network equipment is not compatible with the OpenFlow function, so the future will take a gradual deployment of OpenFlow function of the device. At present, the customer market is mainly aimed at large-scale IDC, communication operators, cloud service centers and cross-IDC network. Under the SDN network architecture, the feasible direction of the products is divided into: application layer, including services such as security, management and cloud virtualization. Function to provide SLA, QoE, Security and Firewall and other network services; control layer to remote controller-based, and with SDN control software and network L4 to L7 solution; infrastructure layer: switches, routers and network chips.
SDN is an IT network, the essence of an open ecological chain, the core of the network software, the driving force for change from IT rather than telecommunications. The future of those who lack the ability to build open software systems, telecommunications companies may lose the dominance of the network. From the IT / Internet market, SDN will come more quickly, such as DataCenter, large enterprise network, while the operator market will be relatively slow to change. With the success of DC, it may slowly erode the edge switch & router market, where the market share of double digits includes Cisco, Juniper, Alu, Huawei. Network equipment manufacturers or chipsets will use the future of network virtualization and cloud computing platform capabilities of the software, follow-up SDN critical software applications and hardware integration technology, will become the core value of commercialization.
In the future SDN may be on the existing network equipment sales model caused great subversion, complex software can be more cheap and simple operation on the device, so that the future of the customer market is no longer exclusive to large network service providers. SDN once become mainstream, the solution is differentiated SDN and its equipped software, network hardware machine as a result of chip commercialization, tend to homogenization, the main advantage of competition is cost leadership, and cost leadership is mainly dependent on shipments , So the network hardware vendors may eventually leave a few process design, quality control superior players. The other is not one by one said.
Fourth, the rich application scenarios and application scenarios will lead to changes in the revenue structure and business model of the communications equipment industry. The demand for the user from a single voice business to the personalized, diversified, professional and experiential information services development, marking the market for business needs and operators focus on the development of the adjustment. Communication network breeds a new round of innovation and change: intelligent terminals will be wearing equipment, intelligent networking vehicles, smart home and other areas of extension, and the formation of more generalized intelligent computing products and intelligent hardware, further in-depth change in production lifestyle ; Mobile applications will be mainstream, mobile education, mobile, mobile Medical and other comprehensive rise; mobile Internet and Internet of things integration, mobile Internet and traditional industries integration, will form a new format and the market, APP economy from the Internet to accelerate the extension of traditional industries; "cloud +" will be mobile Internet Leading mode, mobile interconnection and sensing, interactive, precise positioning and other technologies will open more O2O and other cross-border model innovation. The flow blowout has changed the target of the communications equipment business: carrying greater traffic, managing greater traffic, and delivering traffic data values become the primary criteria for measuring equipment and solutions. Only to adapt to the rapid growth of traffic and effectively deal with this growth and benefit of the communications equipment manufacturers in the new industrial environment to survive and grow.
All of these changes make different communication equipment manufacturers choose a different transition path. Ericsson has withdrawn from the mobile and chip markets, adding to investments in IP networks, cloud, television and media, industry and society, operational support solutions / business support solutions. Huawei also take into account the three areas of operators, enterprise, consumer market, for 5G, software services, video, multimedia and other fields are also covered. Nokia has chosen wireless, professional services, telecom cloud and software defined networks, network security and other areas as a key development direction. Alcatel-Lucent continues to implement the "transformation strategy", focusing on IP, cloud and ultra-wideband technology in the product line and mode of operation and other aspects of deepening change. ZTE to "out of the traditional telecommunications industry restrictions" as a guide, and vigorously enhance the terminal business and government network business in the company's internal position. "Product + service" model more and more attention. Ericsson's revenue in 2014, including management services, support programs, including other business income accounted for 50%, and network facilities income quite. Nokia service business developed faster, accounting for 51% of revenue. Alcatel-Lucent's service revenue accounted for 33%.
Fifth, based on the network information security under the domestic alternative to become the key to rely on the path. Information security areas include information security and localization of two dimensions, information security refers to the maintenance of domestic security necessary network security measures, localization of the core network communications equipment is increasing the proportion of localization.
In the autonomous controllable strategy and the strength of domestic chip manufacturers continue to enhance the role of the localization of communication chips is an inevitable trend. In the field of 4G communications equipment and terminal chips, the voice of domestic enterprises will continue to improve. Huawei, ZTE has made a certain breakthrough in the field of communication equipment special chip, and realized the independent supply of mobile base station ASIC chip, network processing chip (NP), optical communication (WDM / OTN / PTN) chip, but general processor, high Performance DSP and FPGA, high-speed digital-analog conversion chip and other common chip is still heavily dependent on foreign imports. In the field of basic software, communications equipment equipped with real-time embedded operating systems, databases and other products are also mainly dependent on foreign enterprises. In the capital market, China's chip companies to become a trend of globalization, the individual to determine its possible and the original BOE path is more like that the temporary business benefits may not be able to improve a lot, but indirectly on the domestic information security and related industries The effect will be great, the future with the increase in size and volume, there may be a rise in profit on a big step.
